Freelancer Confidence Index Q3 2022
Our report tracks key trends in the market for freelancers in order to identify inflationary pressures, business confidence, and an overview of freelancers’ perception of general economic conditions for Q3 2022.
Executive Summary
- Freelancers’ confidence in their own businesses for the next three months has fallen from -11.4 in Q2 2022 to -17.7 this quarter
- Despite inflationary pressures, the average day rate charged by freelancers has fallen from £528 in Q2 2022 to £503 over the last three months
Concerningly, freelancers’ quarterly earnings have fallen from £27,486 in Q2 2022 to £25,887 in Q3 2022
Freelancers’ confidence in their own businesses for the next three months has fallen from -11.4 in Q2 2022 to -17.7 in Q3 2022. For context, this represents the lowest level of freelancer confidence in their own businesses for the next three months since the height of the pandemic and lockdown restrictions in Q3 2020.
The index also found that despite the current cost-of-living crisis engulfing the UK amidst rising inflationary pressures, the average day rate charged by freelancers has fallen from £528 in Q2 2022 to £503 over the last three months. In turn, this has now translated into a fall in freelancers’ quarterly earnings, which have fallen from £27,486 in Q2 2022 to £25,887 this quarter.
Factors lowering freelancers’ business performance
When analysing the reasons behind the recent fall in freelancer confidence, the FCI revealed that the state of the UK economy (75.9%) was the most detrimental factor impacting self-employed workers. This can be primarily attributed to the current concerns around the UK economy given two consecutive quarters of economic contraction in GDP and inflationary pressures showing no sign of easing.
The other main issues impacting self-employed workers over the past quarter were interest rates (55.6%) and Brexit (51.5%).
Rising debt and costs
Concerningly, over two in five freelancers (42%) are now incurring business debt which is a small increase on Q2 2022, where 37 per cent of freelancers were incurring business debt.
Almost one in five freelancers (18%) are now incurring debt via credit cards issued in the name of their self-employed business – slightly up from 15 per cent in Q2 2022.
The index also revealed that the majority of freelancers (85%) now expect their business costs to increase over the next 12 months, with freelancers forecasting an average increase of 15.1 per cent in their business costs over the next year.
Business Confidence
Amidst the backdrop of an economic recession and continuing concerns around the cost-of-living crisis, it could be expected that freelancers’ confidence in their own businesses would be declining. Indeed, freelancers’ confidence in their own businesses for the next three months has decreased from -11.4 in Q2 2022 to -17.7 this quarter.
Looking at freelancers’ confidence in their businesses over the next three months in more detail reveals that there were decreases in confidence across all three SOC groups. SOC2 professional freelancers reported the largest decrease in confidence, falling from -16.7 in Q2 2022 to -26.9 in Q3 2022. SOC1 managerial freelancers also reported a decrease in confidence, falling from -11.4 in Q2 2022 to -17.5 this quarter whilst SOC3 associate professional and technical freelancers reported a decrease in their confidence from -6.4 last quarter to -9.3 in Q3 2022.
Overall, freelancers’ confidence in their own business for the next three months has fallen since Q2 2022, likely as a result of the continuing impact of the cost-of-living crisis on freelance businesses.
Freelancer business confidence for the next 12 months has further fallen after decreasing from -1.9 in Q1 2022 to -18.5 in Q2 2022, with freelancer business confidence in Q3 2022 now standing at -20.3. This represents the lowest indices score for business confidence over the next 12 months since Q3 2020.
This quarter, SOC2 professional freelancers reported the largest decrease in confidence for the next 12 months, decreasing from -29.0 in Q2 2022 to -36.2 this quarter – representing the lowest indices score for SOC2 professional freelancers since Q3 2020. Similarly, SOC1 managerial freelancers also reported a decrease in confidence compared to the last quarter, falling from -11.4 in Q2 2022 to -15.0 in Q3 2022.
On the other hand, SOC3 associate professional and technical freelancers reported a small increase in confidence in their own businesses for the next 12 months, increasing from -13.3 in Q2 2022 to -8.9 this quarter.
Overall, our findings reveal that business confidence for the next 12 months closely aligns with our findings for business confidence for the next three months, with freelancers now less confident in their business compared to the last quarter. This is driven by decreases in confidence to both SOC1 managerial and SOC2 professional freelancers.
Factors affecting business performance
We now move on to explore the factors that freelancers identify as having an influence on their business performance. In terms of negative determinants, freelancers have not changed their view regarding the top factor but, interestingly, have changed their view regarding the second and third greatest negative determinants.
This quarter, freelancers continue to cite the state of the UK economy as the top factor negatively affecting freelancers’ business performance, with 75.9 per cent of freelancers citing this factor. This can be largely attributed to the current backdrop of an economic recession and the cost-of-living crisis negatively impacting freelance businesses. Perhaps unsurprisingly, all three SOC groups cited the state of the UK economy as the top negative determinant.
Interest rates were the second most selected factor for freelancers, with 55.6 per cent of freelancers citing this factor in Q3 0222 and largely driven by SOC1 managerial freelancers citing this as their second greatest factor negatively affecting their business.
Interestingly, Brexit is now considered the third greatest factor negatively affecting freelance businesses, largely driven by SOC3 associate professional and technical freelancers citing this as their second greatest negative determinant.
Overall, with the UK engulfed in a cost-of-living crisis and economic recession, it is perhaps unsurprising that the state of the UK economy continues to be cited as the most detrimental factor for freelance businesses.
Top factors which enhance freelancers’ business performance
Now looking at the factors which enhance freelancers’ business performance, this quarter reveals that whilst all the negative factors were external, the factors enhancing freelancers’ business performance remain largely internal.
In line with our findings from Q2 2022, the top two factors positively enhancing freelancers’ business performance remain unchanged this quarter.
Brand value and reputation in the market continues to be the top factor positively enhancing freelancers’ business performance, with 59.4 per cent of freelancers citing this. This is largely driven by the fact that both SOC1 managerial and SOC2 professional freelancers ranked their brand value and reputation in the market as their top enhancing factor.
Innovation in terms of the services offered to clients remains as the second most positively enhancing factor on freelancers’ business performance in Q3 2022, with 57.3 per cent of freelancers citing this factor this quarter.
The third most enhancing factor for freelancers’ business performance this quarter is now collaboration with other freelancers or businesses to secure more work, with 52.6 per cent of freelancers citing this factor this quarter.
Overall, the top two factors enhancing freelancers’ business performance remain unchanged compared to Q2 022, with freelancers continuing to rely on brand value and reputation in the market to enhance their business performance.
Looking more closely at SOC groups reveals that innovation in terms of services they offer clients was selected by SOC3 associate professional and technical freelancers (56.4%) as their second greatest enhancing factor whilst SOC1 managerial freelancers (59.1%) and SOC2 professional freelancers (45.7%) cited this factor as their third greatest enhancer.
Interestingly, collaboration with other freelancers and businesses to secure more work was selected by SOC1 managerial freelancers (60.9%) as their second greatest enhancer on business performance whilst SOC3 associate professional and technical freelancers (54.5%) cited this factor as their third greatest enhancing factor.
In addition, SOC2 professional freelancers (58.1%) cited the adoption of flexible working practices by organisations as their second most enhancing determinant.
Overall, the top three factors enhancing freelancers’ business performance remain unchanged compared to Q1 2022, with freelancers continuing to rely on brand value and reputation in the market to enhance their business performance.
Freelancer UK Economy Confidence Index
Freelancer confidence in the UK economy for the next three months has fallen quarter-on-quarter since Q3 2021. This quarter, confidence has again fallen from -46.2 in Q2 2022 to -56.4 in Q3 2022 – the fourth successive quarter where confidence has fallen and the lowest indices score for confidence in the UK economy over the next three months since Q1 2020.
The decrease in confidence is driven by a decrease in confidence across all SOC groups and in particular, a significant decrease in confidence from SOC2 professional freelancers, decreasing from -54.5 in Q2 2022 to -70.4 this quarter. This represents the lowest indices score for SOC2 professional freelancers since Q1 2020.
In addition, SOC1 managerial freelancers have also experienced a decrease in confidence compared to last quarter, falling from -32.6 in Q2 2022 to -40.5 this quarter – representing the lowest score for this SOC group since Q3 2020.
SOC3 associate professional and technical freelancers have also experienced a decrease in confidence compared to last quarter, falling from -46.9 in Q2 2022 to -53.3 in Q3 2022.
Overall, freelancer confidence in the UK economy over the next three months has fallen to its lowest level since Q1 2020 due to the current economic recession and cost-of-living crisis.
Now looking at freelancers’ confidence in the UK economy for the next 12 months reveals a small increase in confidence, only slightly increasing from -56.7 in Q2 2022 to -53.9 this quarter. This is largely driven by small increases in confidence for SOC1 managerial freelancers and SOC3 associate professional and technical freelancers.
SOC3 associate professional and technical freelancers experienced a small increase, increasing from -56.3 in Q2 2022 to -43.5 this quarter whilst SOC1 managerial freelancers also reported a small increase, increasing from -52.2 in Q2 2022 to -40.5 in Q3 2022.
On the other hand, SOC2 professional freelancers reported a decrease in confidence for the next 12 months, falling from -60.3 in Q2 2022 to -74.2 this quarter.
Overall, freelancers’ confidence in the UK economy for the next 12 months has only slightly increased compared to the last quarter, largely driven by an increase in confidence amongst SOC2 professional freelancers.
Freelancer Day Rates
Day rates have now slightly decreased compared to Q2 2022, with the average day rate charged by freelancers over the last three months standing at £503, decreasing from £528 in Q2 2022. This represents the lowest average day rate charged by freelancers since Q2 2021.
The slight decrease in day rates this quarter is largely driven by a significant decrease in the average day rate charged by SOC3 associate professional and technical freelancers, with the average rate charged decreasing from £420 in Q2 2022 to £265 this quarter. This represents the lowest average day rate charged by SOC3 associate professional and technical freelancers since Q4 2020.
On the other hand, both SOC1 managerial and SCO2 professional freelancers both reported increases in their day rates for the last three months, increasing from £600 in Q2 022 to £726 in Q3 2022 and from £595 in Q2 2022 to £608 this quarter respectively.
Overall, average day rates have slightly decreased compared to Q2 2022 which is driven by a sharp drop in the average day rates charged by SOC3 associate professional and technical freelancers.
In terms of quantifying the expected change in day rates, the majority of freelancers (52%) expect an increase in their average day rates for the next 12 months whereas a further 15 per cent expect no change and 34 per cent forecast a decrease. This compares to 62 per cent of freelancers that forecast an increase in their day rates in Q2 2022.
SOC3 associate professional and technical freelancers were more likely to forecast an increase in their day rates over the next 12 months, with 59 per cent predicting an increase compared to 49 per cent of SOC2 professional freelancers and 45 per cent of SOC1 managerial freelancers.
Interestingly, when asked to quantify the expected change to their day rates, freelancers now expect their day rates to decrease by 0.6 per cent, which is largely driven by a decrease to SOC1 managerial freelancers who are forecasting a decrease of 5.5 per cent to their day rates.
SOC2 professional freelancers are also forecasting a decrease to their day rates of 0.8 per cent whereas SOC3 associate professional and technical freelancers are expecting an increase of 2.7 per cent to their day rate for the next 12 months.
Overall, the majority of freelancers now expect day rates to increase over the next 12 months, in line with concerns around the cost-of-living crisis revealed in our business and economic confidence indices.
Capacity Utilisation
Freelancers’ spare capacity has increased slightly since Q2 2022, increasing from 2.8 weeks without work per quarter in Q2 2022 to 2.9 weeks this quarter.
This increase in freelancers’ spare capacity is largely driven by an increase in the spare capacity of SOC2 professional freelancers, increasing from 2.2 weeks without work per quarter in Q2 2022 to 2.8 weeks in Q3 2022.
On the other hand, SOC1 managerial freelancers reported a decrease in their spare capacity, reducing the number of weeks not working per quarter from 1.9 weeks in Q2 2022 to 2.3 weeks to Q3 2022.
SOC3 associate professional and technical freelancers now report the same figure as Q2 2022, reporting they have 3.2 weeks without work per quarter.
Overall, freelancers are now working slightly less compared to last quarter, with the average number of weeks without work per quarter now standing at 2.9 weeks for Q3 2022.
Quarterly Earnings
This quarter, freelancers now report a decrease to their average quarterly earnings, falling from £27,486 in Q2 2022 to £25,887 this quarter. This is largely driven by SOC3 associate professional and technical freelancers reporting a significant decrease in their average quarterly earnings, decreasing from £22,020 in Q2 2022 to £13,483 in Q3 2022.
SOC2 professional freelancers also report a decrease in their average quarterly earnings compared to Q2 2022, falling from £32,027 in Q2 2022 to £30,204 this quarter.
SOC1 managerial freelancers, however, reported a significant increase in their average quarterly earnings, increasing from £29,491 in Q2 2022 to £39,325 in Q3 2022.
Overall, despite a sharp increase to the quarterly earnings of SOC1 managerial freelancers, freelancers are now reporting a decrease in their average quarterly earnings due to a significant decline to the average quarterly earnings reported by SOC3 associate professional and technical freelancers.
Freelancers’ Business Costs
The majority of freelancers (85%) now expect their input costs to increase over the next 12 months which is a slight increase compared to Q2 2022, where 83 per cent of freelancers forecast an increase.
A further 8 per cent of freelancers forecast no change in their input costs for the next 12 months whereas 8 per cent actually predict a decrease in their input costs for the next 12 months.
In terms of quantifying the expected change in input costs for the next 12 months, freelancers now predict that their input costs will increase by 13.3 per cent.
The majority of SOC1 managerial freelancers (92%) reported that they expect an increase in their input costs for the next 12 months and forecast an increase of 14.6 per cent.
In addition, the majority of SOC2 professional freelancers (84%) reported that they expect an increase in their input costs for the next 12 months and forecast an increase of 12.3 per cent.
Similarly, the majority of SOC3 associate professional and technical freelancers (80%) reported that they expect an increase in their input costs for the next 12 months and forecast an increase of 13.3 per cent.
Overall, freelancers are expecting an increase in their business costs for the next 12 months with freelancers expecting the continuing cost-of-living crisis to continue to impact on their freelance business.
Business debt
Over two in five freelancers (42%) are now incurring business debt which is a small increase on Q2 2022, where 37 per cent of freelancers were incurring business debt.
18 per cent of freelancers are now incurring debt via credit cards issued in the name of their self-employed business (up from 15 per cent in Q2 2022).
A further six per cent of freelancers are now incurring debt from a commercial bank whilst five per cent are incurring debt from a friend and family member.
In addition, six per cent are incurring debt from government agencies whilst two per cent are incurring debt from a non-bank financial institution.
On the other hand, 55 per cent of freelancers reported that they have no business debt which closely aligns with our findings from Q2 2022, where 59 per cent of freelancers reported that they have no business debt.
Overall, freelancer business debt has increased slightly from last quarter, with freelancers most likely to be incurring debt via credit cards issued in the name of their self-employed business.
Job-related stress
Last quarter, job-related stress levels decreased slightly from 5.84 in Q1 2022 to 5.70 in Q2 2022 which was driven by decreases to all three SOC groups.
This quarter, job-related stress levels have dropped from 5.70 in Q2 2022 to 5.60 in Q3 2022 (on a ten-point scale where zero is not at all stressed and 10 is extremely stressed).
SOC1 managerial freelancers have reported a decrease in job-related stress levels compared to last quarter, falling from 6.09 in Q2 2022 to 5.42 in Q3 2022.
On the other hand, SOC2 professional freelancers have reported an increase in job-related stress levels, increasing from 5.42 in Q2 2022 to 5.47 in Q3 2022.
Similarly, SOC3 associate professional and technical professional have reported an increase in job-related stress levels, increasing from 5.58 in Q2 2022 to 5.84 this quarter.
Overall, job-related stress levels have decreased since Q2 2022, driven by a sharp decrease in stress levels reported by SOC1 managerial freelancers.
Job satisfaction
Job satisfaction has now increased from 5.67 in Q2 2022 to 5.83 this quarter (on a 10-point scale where zero is not at all satisfied and 10 is extremely satisfied).
The increase in job satisfaction is driven by a significant increase in SOC1 managerial freelancers’ job satisfaction, increasing from 5.04 in Q2 2022 to 6.21 this quarter.
On the other hand, SOC3 associate professional and technical freelancers reported a decrease in their job satisfaction compared to the previous quarter, falling from 5.85 in Q2 2022 to 5.43 in Q3 2022.
Similarly, SOC2 professional freelancers have experienced a decrease in job satisfaction since Q2 2022, falling from 5.88 in Q2 2022 to 5.86 this quarter.
Overall, freelancers’ job satisfaction has decreased from last quarter, driven by a significant decrease in job satisfaction reported by SOC1 managerial freelancers.
Conclusion
Our quarterly report for Q2 2022 revealed that confidence had fallen to levels not seen since the height of the pandemic due to the cost-of-living crisis engulfing the UK ultimately impacting on freelancers’ businesses.
Unfortunately, three months on and the impact of rising inflationary pressures and a weakening UK economy is continuing to significantly damage freelancers’ confidence in both the UK economy and in their own businesses.
Perhaps even more concerning is the fact that day rates and quarterly earnings are falling despite the rising costs which risks sending self-employed workers back into the abyss. In fact, rising costs could completely derail the sector’s ability to bounce back and recover its position as one of the most innovative parts of the UK economy.
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